top of page
  • Kiltered

Transforming Uncertainty into Opportunity: Effective DEI Strategies for Leaders

Updated: Jul 9


Do you find it hard to envisage how your business would function if it was more inclusive? You're not alone. When the destination is unclear, we are more reluctant to move towards it. Welcome to the ambiguity effect.

Uncertainty over the future is a subtle but important issue that could threaten to undermine even the most well-intentioned DEI efforts. Our brains dislike uncertainty and are therefore more inclined to make choices where the outcome is known. Ever heard the phrase, “Better the devil you know”? This seemingly innocent mantra can stifle positive change and result in choices that maintain a negative status quo and derail culture change efforts.

In this piece, we discuss how the ambiguity effect may be impacting your DEI efforts and how leaders can build strategies that can overcome it.

Understanding the Ambiguity Effect

The ambiguity effect, a cognitive bias identified in behavioural economics, refers to the human tendency to avoid options with unknown probabilities compared to options with known probabilities, even if the known options are suboptimal. In the context of DEI, this means that employees and leaders may unconsciously favour the familiar—even when the familiar perpetuates inequity and exclusion.

At its core, the ambiguity effect describes our tendency to avoid options that we perceive as ambiguous or lacking in clear information. Instead, we gravitate towards choices where the probability of a favourable outcome is known. In the context of DEI, this bias manifests in various ways. For example, during the hiring process, decision-makers may default to familiar candidates or traditional criteria to mitigate uncertainty, inadvertently perpetuating homogeneity within the workforce. A study by Tversky and Shafir (1992) found that when faced with ambiguous options, individuals often choose the path of least resistance, opting for known quantities over uncertain ones. This tendency can lead to a preference for candidates who fit a familiar mould, thus hindering efforts to diversify the talent pool and cultivate a truly inclusive workplace.

In the context of DEI, this can manifest in several ways. For example: 

  1. When confronted with a new way of thinking, going with tried and tested methods without considering the data.

  2. Hesitation when implementing new DEI initiatives due to uncertainty about their outcomes, fearing backlash or ineffectiveness.

  3. Relying on the feeling of safety that comes from hiring practices that rely heavily on "cultural fit".

Leaders must recognise how the ambiguity effect impacts decision making and challenge the comfort zones that sustain it.

The Impact on DEI Efforts

  1. Resistance to Change: The ambiguity effect can lead to resistance against new DEI policies. Leaders and employees might default to established norms because they perceive them as safer, even if those norms contribute to systemic inequities.

  2. Limited Innovation: DEI promotes innovative thinking and approaches. However, ambiguity aversion can stifle creativity, as individuals may shy away from proposing bold solutions that lack guaranteed success.

  3. Tokenism: Tokenism - symbolic efforts without substantial changes - can provide a false sense of progress while underlying issues remain unaddressed. They look and sound good but have the added benefit of ensuring that nothing ever really changes and so you don’t have to deal with the unknown.

Strategies to Overcome the Ambiguity Effect

So what can organisations do?

  • Data-Driven Decisions: Leveraging data can reduce uncertainty. By collecting and analysing DEI-related metrics, organisations can make informed decisions about what works and what doesn’t. Regularly tracking progress helps in adjusting strategies in real-time and builds confidence in DEI initiatives.

  • Narrative and Communication: Creating a compelling narrative around DEI initiatives can help reduce ambiguity. Clear, consistent communication about the purpose, benefits, and expected outcomes of DEI efforts can align organisational members and reduce resistance.

  • Pilot Programs: Introducing DEI initiatives as pilot programs can mitigate the ambiguity effect. Pilots allow organisations to test new approaches on a smaller scale, gather feedback, and make necessary adjustments before broader implementation.

  • Leadership Training: Equipping leaders with the skills to manage uncertainty is crucial. Training programs that focus on change management, inclusive leadership, and psychological safety can prepare leaders to champion DEI efforts confidently.

  • Engage All Levels: Involving employees at all levels in DEI discussions and planning fosters a sense of ownership and reduces uncertainty. When individuals feel they have a stake in the process, they are more likely to support and contribute to its success.

Practical Insights from Behavioural Economics

Behavioural economics offers valuable tools that can be used to overcome the impact of the ambiguity effect in DEI:

  • Nudging: Small changes in the way choices are presented can encourage more inclusive behaviour.

  • Incentives: Providing incentives for inclusive behaviour can counteract the ambiguity effect. Recognising and rewarding efforts towards DEI can motivate employees to embrace uncertainty and innovate.

  • Framing Effects: The way information is framed significantly impacts decision-making. Framing DEI initiatives as opportunities for growth and competitive advantage, rather than compliance or risk mitigation, can foster a more positive and proactive approach.


The ambiguity effect is a formidable barrier to effective DEI implementation, but it is not insurmountable. 

Leaders must understand that the discomfort of uncertainty is a small price to pay for the immense benefits of a diverse and inclusive workplace. Through strategic actions like leveraging data, piloting new approaches, and cultivating strong leadership, organisations can dismantle the barriers posed by ambiguity.

The key lies in embracing uncertainty as an opportunity rather than a threat. In doing so, leaders not only drive meaningful change but also set a powerful example of resilience and innovation in the face of uncertainty.

7 views0 comments


bottom of page